Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill

The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is Trump’s crowning moment as US President, giving congressional authorisation for his policy programme.

The signature of the H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act (BBB) on 4th July 2025 demonstrated Donald Trump’s total grip on the Republican Party. It was passed through both houses of Congress on a simple majority because it was classified as a budget reconciliation bill. It gives congressional authorisation for his policy programme, which has profound consequences for America – as described by Axios and others, including the Congressional Budget Office (CBO):

A big boost for the wealthiest Americans

The CBO analysis of the distributional effects of the bill shows how the wealthy will benefit at the expense of the poor:

“Resources for households in the lowest decile of the income distribution would decrease by about $1,600 per year …[which] are mainly attributable to reductions in in-kind transfers, such as Medicaid and SNAP [the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which are referred to as ‘food stamps’].”

“Households in the fifth and sixth deciles (that is, in the middle of the income distribution) would see their resources increase by $500 (or 0.5 percent of projected income) and $1,000 (or 0.8 percent of projected income), respectively.

Resources would increase, on average, over the projection period by about $12,000 for households in the highest decile, amounting to 2.3 percent of their projected income. Those projected increases are mainly attributable to reductions in the taxes households in that decile owe.”

And billionaires like Trump will receive tax cuts of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The Big Beautiful Bill will increase the national debt

The CBO “has estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade”.  Republicans argue that this “analysis fails to take into account the impact of economic growth”, with Trump claiming that the BBB will “make this country into a rocket ship”. The available evidence suggests that the impact on growth will be negligible though.

The BBB is a continuation of what has been called ‘Trumponomics’.  It extends the tax cuts that Trump introduced in 2017, which were analysed by The Economist in 2020:

“Trumponomics has not achieved what its proponents forecast. While campaigning in 2016 Mr Trump predicted economic growth of 4% or more; in office the target was cut to 3%. Between the start of 2017 and the end of 2019 America grew by an annual average of 2.5%, barely faster than the 2.4% growth of the three preceding years. The Trump administration argued that tax cuts would pay for themselves and that cutting red tape for business would spur investment. In reality the budget deficit rose from 4.4% to 6.3% of GDP, on the IMF’s measure, and although deregulation did help boost business confidence there was no sustained jump in investment growth.”

Such an increase in the budget deficit is irresponsible. Later generations of Americans will have to pay off the BBB debt. And any rise in interest rates, due to investor lack of confidence, will increase the cost of servicing the debt.

Increasing the budget for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

The hugely increased ICE budget will pay for increased border security, more detention facilities, and arrests for mass deportations. Trump has turned this policy into a deportation spectacle to delight his supporters:

“Trump on Tuesday toured a temporary ICE facility in the Florida Everglades dubbed “Alligator Alcatraz,” where thousands of migrants will be detained in a remote, marshland environment teeming with predators.

●  MAGA influencers invited on the trip gleefully posted photos of the prison’s cages and souvenir-style “merchandise,” thrilling their followers and horrifying critics.

●  Pro-Trump activist Laura Loomer drew outrage after tweeting that “alligators are guaranteed at least 65 million meals if we get started now” — widely interpreted as a reference to the Hispanic population of the United States.”

Deportation is being used as a weapon against political opponents, as Trump Orders ICE to Go After “Democrat Power Centers” “including Los Angeles, Chicago and New York”.

And this has been coupled with presidential use of the National Guard, as when Trump’s quick intervention in LA may thrill his base but inflame tensions. Trump intervened there despite “California Governor Gavin Newsom’s objection” to break up a peaceful demonstration. Such action is reminiscent of an authoritarian police State – and there are concerns that Trump might at some time try to impose martial law, which would prevent elections from being held.

Trying to avoid being held to account

“The big tax cuts will apply this year. Most of the spending cuts will hit after the midterms.” This dishonest tactic will give the Republicans an electoral advantage. As always, election results will be determined by which party can communicate more effectively – but Democrats will need to explain a future impact, which won’t be publicised on right-wing media, whereas Republicans will be able to point to tax cuts that will already be visible in pay packets.