Aftermath of Ukraine invasion
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No mention of Russia, the aggressor, making any concessions - and nothing about security measures to prevent Putin coming back for more later
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Whatever emerges from the Ukraine peace talks, Trump's behaviour has harmed America’s reputation www.patternsofpower.org/ukraine-peace-talks
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Trump’s anger at Russia's latest attacks is hypocritical because he had weakened Ukraine's ability to defend itself, so Russia was bound to take advantage www.euronews.com/2025/03/07/t...
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Trump’s so-called peace deal looks like surrender - and Russia is still bombing power plants in a breach of its terms www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
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Trump is bragging again: www.politico.eu/article/no-o.... That's part of his style www.patternsofpower.org/trump-style/ but he underestimates Putin.
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As Putin starts to increase “the overall size of its military to almost 2.39 million” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36718p52eyo, he intends to continue threatening his neighbours. Trump isn’t persuading him to stop.
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Ukraine and Russia are accusing each other of violating the Easter ceasefire https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c934nprkqz3t Putin seems not to be deterred by America's threat to walk away from the peace talks
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President Trump is offering a deal which rewards Russia for its aggression. It does nothing to prevent a further invasion in the future. President Zelenskyy needs to ask for a better deal (but he must accept some loss of territory).
Quote Karoline Leavitt
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Trump is trying to force Ukraine to accept a deal that gives Russia almost everything it wants, without considering how to stop Putin coming back later for further territory https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/25/trump-repeating-all-mistakes-of-appeasement-except-worse/
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Putin didn’t meet Zelenskiy today, despite having earlier offered to do so. Nor has he agreed to a ceasefire. He will continue his invasion of Ukraine until more US weapons and European sanctions can tilt the balance of power https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-trump-skip-ukraines-peace-talks-that-russian-leader-proposed-2025-05-14/
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Trump boasted that he could stop Putin’s invasion of Ukraine “within 24 hours” – but Russia’s latest aerial attack is the largest yet. Putin is mocking Trump: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2rx8kxdm4o
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This successful Ukrainian attack, made with slender resources, gives Russia a timely reminder that effective resistance would continue even if it succeeded in grabbing more territory https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-stages-major-attack-russian-aircraft-with-drones-security-official-says-2025-06-01/
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European nations are showing determination to defend themselves. Their increased spending makes a European security guarantee to Ukraine look more credible, even without giving it NATO membership https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg8pd2y80go
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Putin has humiliated the US President, by showing how Trump’s campaign pledge to end the war on Ukraine in 24 hours was just an empty boast by #TACO: the man who always climbs down https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-drone-attack-triggers-fire-roof-apartment-block-officials-say-2025-07-03/
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Trump’s new approach to arming Ukraine is hard to analyse: Ukraine would get more weapons if Europeans pay; 50 days lets Russia take a lot more territory; Trump often climbs down https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump
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Zelenskiy’s anti-corruption decision is welcome, showing the benefit of EU pressure – but it remains unclear what he had previously been trying to do and whether the necessary reforms will materialise https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-urges-ukraine-uphold-independent-anti-corruption-bodies-zelenskiy-signals-2025-07-27/
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Trump’s sanctions threat is bonkers. It doesn’t hurt Russia but does hurt the West. And he’ll probably have to draw back from secondary sanctions on China and India, who buy most of Russia’s oil https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-developed-immunity-sanctions-kremlin-says-after-trump-tightens-2025-07-30/
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Ukraine’s survival is more likely with the three Nordic countries adding to the Dutch contribution for a total of ˆ1bn supply of weaponry, but Russia is not likely to negotiate a ceasefire to meet Trump’s 8 Aug deadline https://www.reuters.com/world/sweden-norway-denmark-give-500-million-nato-project-send-us-weapons-ukraine-2025-08-05/
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Trump allowed a slippage in his Aug 8 deadline for Putin to agree a ceasefire, and he has returned to his theme of giving Russia most of what it wants. He wants a quick headline and doesn’t care about the strategic picture https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-ukraine-press-us-ahead-trump-putin-talks-2025-08-09/
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Ukraine cannot recover its lost territory but it needs a deal that would stop Russia invading again. A tough negotiation that neither it nor the EU can afford to lose, despite Trump’s desire for a quick headline https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sidelined-trump-putin-summit-fights-russian-grab-more-territory-2025-08-12/
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The Alaska talks were inconclusive. Trump’s wish to be seen as a peace-maker is further dented. And if he doesn’t now apply the threatened sanctions on Russia he won’t be seen as a strongman either https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyvd3gkg1po
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Hungary and Slovakia have not been supporting European security guarantees for Ukraine, partly because they rely on Russian oil, but Ukrainian attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline are changing that economic situation https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-flows-hungary-slovakia-halted-after-ukrainian-attack-2025-08-18/
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Russia clearly has no appetite for slowing its offensive in Ukraine. And Putin doesn’t want to meet Zelenskyy as an equal, despite Trump’s wishes.
This war is going to drag on
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Russification, in parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russians, means a police State and enforced cultural indoctrination. Ukraine and its European allies are being shown why they must stop Putin gaining more territory https://www.reuters.com/investigations/russia-turns-ukrainian-nuclear-city-into-stronghold-fear-2025-08-29/
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The Russian incursion into Polish airspace might have been just testing to see how NATO would respond, but it might have been seen as provocation, with a risk of escalation https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-downs-drones-its-airspace-becoming-first-nato-member-fire-during-ukraine-2025-09-10/
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Russia's latest exercises are intimidating. And it is making incursions into NATO airspace. It doesn’t take NATO seriously and it’s saying that the West must meet its demands in Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn95jxvn04eo
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Despite several Russian incursions into NATO airspace, Donald Trump has done nothing. He seems to be disengaging from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-diplomatic-blitz-ukraine-gaza-trump-moves-passenger-seat-2025-09-20/
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NATO hasn’t responded convincingly to Russian incursions into its airspace, undermining the credibility of its security guarantee to Ukraine – but both Trump and the EU Commission now support robust and immediate responses https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-russia-nato-airspace/
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This strange Russian statement is an attempt to justify its attacks on Ukraine and EU neighbours. It may have been for domestic consumption: to tell its population why it’s fighting https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/its-no-cold-war-its-fiery-conflict-now-with-west-russia-says-2025-10-02/
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Ukraine is increasing arms production and is beginning to damage Russia's economy. Neither Zelenskyy nor Putin can afford to be seen to lose this war, but they both need it to end. There is no sign of a negotiation though https://www.euronews.com/2025/10/06/ukraine-claims-drone-strikes-on-russian-ammo-plant-oil-terminal-and-weapons-depot
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Russia and Ukraine are targeting each other’s energy infrastructure to inflict economic pain. Ukraine will need a lot of help from the EU to get through the winter https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/12/world/ukraine-russia-energy-war-economic-pain-intl
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Trump put pressure on Netanyahu and then was praised for ending the Gaza war. He is now threatening to put pressure on Putin to end the Ukraine war – perhaps by giving Tomahawks to Zelenskyy https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hegseth-says-us-will-impose-costs-russia-if-ukraine-war-does-not-end-2025-10-15/
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Trump and Putin seem hesitant. Trump is now reluctant to send Tomahawks but has not taken the possibility off the table. Putin has called for another peace summit but might only be playing for time https://www.axios.com/2025/10/17/zelensky-trump-meeting-tomahawks-end-ukraine-war
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Trump has accepted a delay to the Ukraine war peace process, on the basis that Russia is saying that nothing has changed.. But Tomahawk missiles would change Russia's calculus https://www.axios.com/2025/10/21/trump-putin-summit-on-hold-russia-ukraine-war
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Trump's sanctions on Russian oil will damage Russia’s economy but will also increase the cost of living in the West. And neither Putin nor Trump want to lose face by changing course now. It’s a classic stand-off https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-sanctions-russian-oil-majors-prompting-oil-price-rise-india-jitters-2025-10-23/
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Putin has now announced an ‘unstoppable’ missile, presumably to intimidate Western supporters of Ukraine. It doesn’t look like a prelude to peace negotiations and it’s hard to see what reaction he expects https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-tested-new-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile-top-general-says-2025-10-26/
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Ukraine is trying to degrade Russia's economy, but that won't stop the war quickly. Peace negotiations are unlikely until Putin has a political off-ramp https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-drones-damage-ship-dwellings-oil-depot-russias-novorossiysk-2025-11-14/
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This can be seen as a welcome intervention. Both Putin and Zelensky could claim victory. Russia would win the Donbas and Ukraine would be given a US security guarantee to reinforce the help it is getting from Europe https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-donbas
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It is encouraging that Marco Rubio regards the peace talks as “productive”. It is imperative though that all parties can agree: the US, Russia, Europe and Ukraine. War will not stop unless Russia can claim some gains https://www.axios.com/2025/11/23/us-ukraine-progress-trump-peace-plan
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Trump’s proposed Ukraine Peace Plan is unjust, but it is better than continuing the war. Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is partial capitulation to Russia but is a framework for stopping the war and guaranteeing Ukraine security https://www.patternsofpower.org/ukraine-peace-plan/
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Ending Russia’s war in Ukraine doesn’t only depend on those two countries. Europe supports Ukraine. The US is split: JD Vance is hostile to both Europe and Ukraine but Marco Rubio supports them https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/25/ukraines-future-depends-who-wins-battle-white-house/