Aftermath of Ukraine invasion
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No mention of Russia, the aggressor, making any concessions - and nothing about security measures to prevent Putin coming back for more later
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Whatever emerges from the Ukraine peace talks, Trump's behaviour has harmed America’s reputation www.patternsofpower.org/ukraine-peace-talks
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Trump’s anger at Russia's latest attacks is hypocritical because he had weakened Ukraine's ability to defend itself, so Russia was bound to take advantage www.euronews.com/2025/03/07/t...
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Trump’s so-called peace deal looks like surrender - and Russia is still bombing power plants in a breach of its terms www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...
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Trump is bragging again: www.politico.eu/article/no-o.... That's part of his style www.patternsofpower.org/trump-style/ but he underestimates Putin.
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As Putin starts to increase “the overall size of its military to almost 2.39 million” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c36718p52eyo, he intends to continue threatening his neighbours. Trump isn’t persuading him to stop.
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Ukraine and Russia are accusing each other of violating the Easter ceasefire https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c934nprkqz3t Putin seems not to be deterred by America's threat to walk away from the peace talks
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President Trump is offering a deal which rewards Russia for its aggression. It does nothing to prevent a further invasion in the future. President Zelenskyy needs to ask for a better deal (but he must accept some loss of territory).
Quote Karoline Leavitt
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Trump is trying to force Ukraine to accept a deal that gives Russia almost everything it wants, without considering how to stop Putin coming back later for further territory https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/25/trump-repeating-all-mistakes-of-appeasement-except-worse/
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Putin didn’t meet Zelenskiy today, despite having earlier offered to do so. Nor has he agreed to a ceasefire. He will continue his invasion of Ukraine until more US weapons and European sanctions can tilt the balance of power https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-trump-skip-ukraines-peace-talks-that-russian-leader-proposed-2025-05-14/
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Trump boasted that he could stop Putin’s invasion of Ukraine “within 24 hours” – but Russia’s latest aerial attack is the largest yet. Putin is mocking Trump: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2rx8kxdm4o
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This successful Ukrainian attack, made with slender resources, gives Russia a timely reminder that effective resistance would continue even if it succeeded in grabbing more territory https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-stages-major-attack-russian-aircraft-with-drones-security-official-says-2025-06-01/
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European nations are showing determination to defend themselves. Their increased spending makes a European security guarantee to Ukraine look more credible, even without giving it NATO membership https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg8pd2y80go
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Putin has humiliated the US President, by showing how Trump’s campaign pledge to end the war on Ukraine in 24 hours was just an empty boast by #TACO: the man who always climbs down https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-drone-attack-triggers-fire-roof-apartment-block-officials-say-2025-07-03/
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Trump’s new approach to arming Ukraine is hard to analyse: Ukraine would get more weapons if Europeans pay; 50 days lets Russia take a lot more territory; Trump often climbs down https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/14/politics/us-ukraine-weapons-trump
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Zelenskiy’s anti-corruption decision is welcome, showing the benefit of EU pressure – but it remains unclear what he had previously been trying to do and whether the necessary reforms will materialise https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-urges-ukraine-uphold-independent-anti-corruption-bodies-zelenskiy-signals-2025-07-27/
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Trump’s sanctions threat is bonkers. It doesn’t hurt Russia but does hurt the West. And he’ll probably have to draw back from secondary sanctions on China and India, who buy most of Russia’s oil https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-developed-immunity-sanctions-kremlin-says-after-trump-tightens-2025-07-30/
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Ukraine’s survival is more likely with the three Nordic countries adding to the Dutch contribution for a total of ˆ1bn supply of weaponry, but Russia is not likely to negotiate a ceasefire to meet Trump’s 8 Aug deadline https://www.reuters.com/world/sweden-norway-denmark-give-500-million-nato-project-send-us-weapons-ukraine-2025-08-05/
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Trump allowed a slippage in his Aug 8 deadline for Putin to agree a ceasefire, and he has returned to his theme of giving Russia most of what it wants. He wants a quick headline and doesn’t care about the strategic picture https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-ukraine-press-us-ahead-trump-putin-talks-2025-08-09/
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Ukraine cannot recover its lost territory but it needs a deal that would stop Russia invading again. A tough negotiation that neither it nor the EU can afford to lose, despite Trump’s desire for a quick headline https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sidelined-trump-putin-summit-fights-russian-grab-more-territory-2025-08-12/
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The Alaska talks were inconclusive. Trump’s wish to be seen as a peace-maker is further dented. And if he doesn’t now apply the threatened sanctions on Russia he won’t be seen as a strongman either https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyvd3gkg1po
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Hungary and Slovakia have not been supporting European security guarantees for Ukraine, partly because they rely on Russian oil, but Ukrainian attacks on the Druzhba oil pipeline are changing that economic situation https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-flows-hungary-slovakia-halted-after-ukrainian-attack-2025-08-18/
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Russia clearly has no appetite for slowing its offensive in Ukraine. And Putin doesn’t want to meet Zelenskyy as an equal, despite Trump’s wishes.
This war is going to drag on
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Russification, in parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russians, means a police State and enforced cultural indoctrination. Ukraine and its European allies are being shown why they must stop Putin gaining more territory https://www.reuters.com/investigations/russia-turns-ukrainian-nuclear-city-into-stronghold-fear-2025-08-29/
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The Russian incursion into Polish airspace might have been just testing to see how NATO would respond, but it might have been seen as provocation, with a risk of escalation https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-downs-drones-its-airspace-becoming-first-nato-member-fire-during-ukraine-2025-09-10/
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Russia's latest exercises are intimidating. And it is making incursions into NATO airspace. It doesn’t take NATO seriously and it’s saying that the West must meet its demands in Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn95jxvn04eo
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Despite several Russian incursions into NATO airspace, Donald Trump has done nothing. He seems to be disengaging from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-diplomatic-blitz-ukraine-gaza-trump-moves-passenger-seat-2025-09-20/
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NATO hasn’t responded convincingly to Russian incursions into its airspace, undermining the credibility of its security guarantee to Ukraine – but both Trump and the EU Commission now support robust and immediate responses https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-russia-nato-airspace/
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This strange Russian statement is an attempt to justify its attacks on Ukraine and EU neighbours. It may have been for domestic consumption: to tell its population why it’s fighting https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/its-no-cold-war-its-fiery-conflict-now-with-west-russia-says-2025-10-02/
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Ukraine is increasing arms production and is beginning to damage Russia's economy. Neither Zelenskyy nor Putin can afford to be seen to lose this war, but they both need it to end. There is no sign of a negotiation though https://www.euronews.com/2025/10/06/ukraine-claims-drone-strikes-on-russian-ammo-plant-oil-terminal-and-weapons-depot
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Russia and Ukraine are targeting each other’s energy infrastructure to inflict economic pain. Ukraine will need a lot of help from the EU to get through the winter https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/12/world/ukraine-russia-energy-war-economic-pain-intl
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Trump put pressure on Netanyahu and then was praised for ending the Gaza war. He is now threatening to put pressure on Putin to end the Ukraine war – perhaps by giving Tomahawks to Zelenskyy https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hegseth-says-us-will-impose-costs-russia-if-ukraine-war-does-not-end-2025-10-15/
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Trump and Putin seem hesitant. Trump is now reluctant to send Tomahawks but has not taken the possibility off the table. Putin has called for another peace summit but might only be playing for time https://www.axios.com/2025/10/17/zelensky-trump-meeting-tomahawks-end-ukraine-war
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Trump has accepted a delay to the Ukraine war peace process, on the basis that Russia is saying that nothing has changed.. But Tomahawk missiles would change Russia's calculus https://www.axios.com/2025/10/21/trump-putin-summit-on-hold-russia-ukraine-war
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Trump's sanctions on Russian oil will damage Russia’s economy but will also increase the cost of living in the West. And neither Putin nor Trump want to lose face by changing course now. It’s a classic stand-off https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-sanctions-russian-oil-majors-prompting-oil-price-rise-india-jitters-2025-10-23/
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Putin has now announced an ‘unstoppable’ missile, presumably to intimidate Western supporters of Ukraine. It doesn’t look like a prelude to peace negotiations and it’s hard to see what reaction he expects https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russia-tested-new-nuclear-powered-cruise-missile-top-general-says-2025-10-26/
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Ukraine is trying to degrade Russia's economy, but that won't stop the war quickly. Peace negotiations are unlikely until Putin has a political off-ramp https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-drones-damage-ship-dwellings-oil-depot-russias-novorossiysk-2025-11-14/
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This can be seen as a welcome intervention. Both Putin and Zelensky could claim victory. Russia would win the Donbas and Ukraine would be given a US security guarantee to reinforce the help it is getting from Europe https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-donbas
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It is encouraging that Marco Rubio regards the peace talks as “productive”. It is imperative though that all parties can agree: the US, Russia, Europe and Ukraine. War will not stop unless Russia can claim some gains https://www.axios.com/2025/11/23/us-ukraine-progress-trump-peace-plan
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Trump’s proposed Ukraine Peace Plan is unjust, but it is better than continuing the war. Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is partial capitulation to Russia but is a framework for stopping the war and guaranteeing Ukraine security https://www.patternsofpower.org/ukraine-peace-plan/
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Ending Russia’s war in Ukraine doesn’t only depend on those two countries. Europe supports Ukraine. The US is split: JD Vance is hostile to both Europe and Ukraine but Marco Rubio supports them https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/11/25/ukraines-future-depends-who-wins-battle-white-house/
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Witkoff and Kushner are interested in financial deals, involving rare earths, oil and gas. Trump's main motivation is money. It seems improbable that he is trying to get a better deal for Ukraine than the earlier ‘28-point plan’ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/witkoff-kushner-meet-putin-moscow-discuss-an-end-ukraine-war-2025-12-02/
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Zelensky talks of a "very constructive" phone call with Witkoff and Kushner – but their words must be viewed with suspicion, as the US National Security Strategy clearly favours Russia https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz680jx511no
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Hungary is free-riding on the EU. It won’t contribute to the Ukraine financial support package and it will continue to buy cheap Russian oil. Russia was already emboldened by US support and the EU split makes it even more confident https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjezpd95v71o
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Trump’s team has chosen to believe that Russia only wants part of Ukraine. That is naïve. US intelligence, European leaders, and common sense all say otherwise – why else is Russia probing Europe’s defences? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-intelligence-indicates-putins-war-aims-ukraine-are-unchanged-2025-12-19/
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Russia's latest attack on Kyiv is a negotiating tactic. Putin wants Trump to pressurise Zelensky to accept Russian demands https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1dzvpg1341o
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It is very likely that Russia tried to make Trump angry by alleging that Ukraine had attacked a Putin residence. That ploy shouldn’t work. Russia often lies and Zelenskiy isn’t stupid https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-zelenskiy-talks-yield-no-progress-ukraine-russia-territorial-issues-2025-12-29/
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Trump's support for Orban will make Ukraine nervous. Orban is pro-Russia and wants Ukraine to surrender as soon as possible so that he can have cheap Russian oil again https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-committed-hungarian-pm-orbans-success-says-rubio-2026-02-16/
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Orban Is blocking aid to Ukraine and isn’t joining the EU resistance against Putin, despite Hungary’s experience of Soviet occupation, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-vows-block-eu-sanctions-russia-eve-ukraine-war-anniversary-2026-02-23/
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Russia's use of long-range cruise missiles angered Trump in his first term of office. Its recent use of them might have been a tactic to intimidate Ukraine, but it is also a threat to the US and NATO. Trump should take note https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-images-indicate-russia-used-missile-heart-nuclear-pact-collapse-2026-02-26/
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Russia has economic problems despite higher oil prices, and Iran’s supply of drones may now reduce, but Putin is unlikely to negotiate seriously with Ukraine amid so much uncertainty https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-prepares-10-cut-non-sensitive-spending-2026-sources-say-2026-03-11/
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Trump handing victory to Russia would quickly end the war in Ukraine and benefit the US economy. And Putin now enjoys high oil prices. But a Russian win would compromise Western security https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-links-security-guarantees-ukraine-giving-up-donbas-zelenskiy-says-2026-03-25/
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NATO was set up to defend the West against Russian aggression. Europeans buy American munitions to defend Ukraine, but Trump is considering diverting supplies to his Iran war – which is not NATO business https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/26/us-iran-war-ukraine-missile-defense/
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Putin must be delighted. He went to war to stop Ukraine joining NATO, and now Trump is threatening to more than meet his demands – by dismantling NATO entirely https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15687421/Trump-threatens-abandon-Nato-faltering-Iran-war.html
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Russia is clearly threatening Western interests – but Trump has favoured Putin in negotiations on the Ukraine war and is talking about leaving NATO https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cre13qn9z7do
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Russia has helped Bulgaria to become Ukraine’s main opposition in Europe, so the EU is still divided on support for Ukraine even after Orban’s defeat https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/18/bulgaria-election-radev-russia-orban/
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These EU decisions transform the negotiating position between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine can strengthen its military and fight for another two years while Russia is under more pressure https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-formally-approves-ukraine-loan-20th-sanctions-package-against-russia-2026-04-23/
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The Slovakian PM is parading his support for Russia (and he was elected with the support of Russian interference). This is another illustration of the EU's lack of foreign policy coherence https://www.reuters.com/world/slovakias-pm-fico-attend-victory-day-parade-moscow-russian-tv-says-2026-05-03/
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Some welcome good news on the Ukraine war, with a ceasefire and prisoner swap. Trump needed a positive news story, as things are going badly for him in his war on Iran https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-violating-ceasefire-2026-05-08/
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Magyar has pledged to reaffirm Hungary's Western orientation. This is good news for Hungary, the EU, and Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/magyar-sworn-hungarys-prime-minister-promises-change-2026-05-09/
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Ukraine is now winning territory back. The stalemate, and the huge costs, should now fuel peace talks – but both Putin and Zelensky need face-saving narratives for their populations https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/14/europe/russia-winning-streak-ukraine-over-intl-cmd
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China has reaffirmed its strategic support for Russia and both countries are critical of Trump. Russia is therefore confident in its ability to survive Western pressure in Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-putin-meet-beijing-tea-diplomacy-after-trump-visit-2026-05-19/
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Russia and Ukraine are accusing each other of escalation in the war. The Oreshnik missile is nuclear-capable, so its use is very menacing. A third world war can only be avoided if both sides avoid further escalation https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-capital-kyiv-hit-by-massive-missile-drone-attack-2026-05-23/
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Russia is failing to grab more of Ukraine’s territory. It is now terrorising civilians, hoping to weaken the country’s resistance ahead of future negotiations on ending the war https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y9nyvg9z2o
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The Ukrainian strike on St Petersburg was a symbolic gesture, showing that it is undefeated. It also humiliated Putin. That was risky: tempting Russia to make a huge symbolic response https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0e2vqd3j1vo
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Reuters suggests that Ukraine’s drone arracks on Russia are aimed at turning Russian opinion against Putin. This sounds like a good idea, but Putin will be hard to dislodge https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiys-letter-putin-was-intended-other-ears-2026-06-05/
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Ukraine's strategy of cutting Russian supply lines is effective. Crimea has had to introduce fuel rationing, and lack of supplies weakens the morale of troops https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-drone-commander-wants-cut-crimea-off-russia-2026-06-11/
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Sir Keir Starmer has paid a political price, ahead of a crucial by-election next week, for talking big on defence spending but failing to resource it. This affects the credibility of UK support for Ukraine https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c621wr1zg97o
Substack 260615 Turning point in Ukraine
https://open.substack.com/pub/patternsofpower/p/turning-point-in-ukraine
Russia's war against Ukraine has reached a turning point, with Ukraine now having some military success. It is necessary to look at the viewpoints of both participants, together with American and European interests, when assessing what needs to happen to stop the killing – which will only stop if all four viewpoints are taken into account.
Russia's perspective was highlighted by John Mearsheimer’s interview this week with Russian strategic thinker, Sergey Karaganov: What Nuclear Taboo? Karaganov “believes that the time has come for Russia to reestablish deterrence, first by attacking targets in Europe with conventional weapons. And if that does not work, Russia should launch limited nuclear strikes into Europe”. Karaganov’s views “are widely shared in Russia”. Both President Putin and the population, in different ways, see the war as a matter of survival against what they see as threats by the West.
Ukraine is now slowly recovering territory from Russian occupation and Ukraine's drone commander wants to cut Crimea off from Russia: “Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Russian supply routes in Crimea”. Ukraine has also been able to make “longer-range strikes that have destroyed oil infrastructure and arms manufacturing deep inside Russia”. Zelenskiy's letter to Putin, “offering face-to-face peace talks to end the war in Ukraine”, was probably “intended to tell Russian society and Western governments” that Ukraine is now in a stronger position to negotiate. Its primary objective is long-term peace and security.
President Donald Trump has been less supportive towards Ukraine than his predecessors. On 28 February 2025, Trump tells Zelenskyy: 'You don't have the cards right now'. His peace proposals have involved Ukraine giving up territory and America recovering its costs of support – by Europeans paying for American weapons, and by exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources jointly with Russia. Trump promised peace in Ukraine within a day, when he was campaigning for re-election and he still wants a speedy resolution. He doesn’t seem to be concerned about European interests and NATO. His fellow Republicans don't all support his views, though: House Passes Ukraine Aid in Defiance of Republican Leaders.
European countries see Russia as a threat and they support Ukraine for that reason. As the EU approves ˆ90bn loan for Ukraine, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that "Ukraine really needs this loan and it's also a sign that Russia cannot outlast Ukraine". The EU has also acknowledged that Hungary and Slovakia still need Russian oil, though, so its support for Ukraine is not 100%.
Although all the countries involved want the war to end, they all have different internal political objectives. The war has entered a dangerous phase, as Russia becomes more desperate. Its needs cannot be ignored – and peace talks need an added sense of urgency accordingly.
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Putin's response to recent Ukrainian attacks has not been to start peace negotiations but instead to escalate. A very dangerous path, and a warning to Europe. A new peace initiative is needed https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-drones-attack-ukrainian-capital-set-central-district-hotel-fire-2026-07-01/
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Ukraine is suffering from lack of Patriot missiles. America should surely now provide Ukraine with a licence to make enough to keep itself (and Europe) safe https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrainian-capital-kyiv-under-missile-attack-officials-say-2026-07-05/