8.1   Introduction to the Iraq Analysis

(This is an archived page, from the Patterns of Power Edition 3 book.  Current versions are at book contents).

This chapter provides an example of using this book's approach to analyse a complex problem.  The decision to invade Iraq in 2003 involved all five dimensions of power and it had both local and global consequences.  The Chilcot report, which was published in July 2016, has now provided a much more comprehensive and detailed analysis than was possible when the first edition of this book was published in January 2013 – but that does not negate the value of the issue as an example for readers of this book.

The chapter has been rewritten, to summarise the logic and conclusions of the original analysis and then note the differences between detailed source information for that and the Chilcot Report analysis without repeating it.  The Edition 2 version of this chapter (which was published in 2014) has been archived on the PatternsofPower website and is linked to from the current text.  An additional segment has been added (8.8), to summarise how the Chilcot report differed from this book's analysis: having a wider scope and having access to more information.

The scope of this chapter is unchanged from Edition 2.  It analyses the decision to go to war, and only uses information that was available at the time of the decision (whereas the Chilcot report also considers the conduct of the war).  It provides an assessment of the decision-making process. 

Sections 8.2 – 8.6 were written to explore the perspectives of the countries affected by the invasion of Iraq.  They drew upon public-domain information to explore factors that were relevant to the decision made by America and Britain.  The material is all archived under Edition 2 on the website, but is only listed here as a series of links for the sake of brevity.  The original summary of the conclusions from that analysis, though, is repeated below with some endnotes pulled into the main text, and refreshed URLs where possible, to improve readability online (8.7).